RSS USD to CAD Forex Chart Analysis

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RSS Bank of Canada Noon Rate

  • CA: 0.9605 USD = 1 CAD 2010-09-03 Bank of Canada noon rate September 7, 2010
    1 Canadian Dollar = 0.9605 USD (USD = U.S. dollar). These are the Bank of Canada's nominal noon exchange rates, published at about 12:15 ET each business day. These are neither buying nor selling rates, and should be used for reference purposes only. […]

Archive for January 2009

USD to CAD – January 30th 2009

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Friday, January 30th, 2009
USD to CAD Candle Chart - January 30th 2009

USD to CAD Candle Chart - January 30th 2009

Yesterday saw an up day, which created a two bar reversal pattern following the down day of Wednesday on the usd to cad pair. In essence the two bars combine to create a hammer candle, and whilst this is certainly not at a bottom, it does indicate a small reversal in the short term. In addition yesterday’s price action touched the 9 day moving average, and it will be interesting to see if this “trend” continues this morning in early trading which seems to be the case. The usd to cad is very difficult trade with any degree of confidence at the moment, either in the short term or medium term, due to the volatility we have seen recently, and the sideways trading range that seems to be prevailing at the moment. Longer term I still favour a bearish move lower. My suggestion for today, and for the next few days would be to stay out, until we we see some further confirmation of the future direction.If you HAVE to trade today ( scalping or intra day) then based on yesterday I would suggest small longs and take any small profits off the table quickly!!

The other reason for staying out is that we have the Canadian GDP figures released later this morning. These figures are released monthly, and Canada is unique in that the figures are “fresh” each month, and so provide a very clear and up to date view of the broader economy. These figures will always have a major impact on the Canadian dollar, and the usd to cad currency pair in particular, given the close trading links between the two countries. The forecast is for -0.5%, against a previous of -0.1% and if the figures are better than forecast then this is generally good news for the home currency, the Canadian dollar. Have a great weekend and good luck with your trading.

The short term is sideway, the medium term is sideways and the long term bearish

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USD to CAD – January 29th 2009

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Thursday, January 29th, 2009
USD to CAD Candle Chart - Daily Prices January 29th 2009

USD to CAD Candle Chart - Daily Prices January 29th 2009

As I suspected, yesterday we saw a down day on the usd to cad currency pair, with the candle bouncing off the 9 day moving average, adding weight to the move. The 9 day and 14 day have now crossed and the 40 day seems about to turn. More importantly the resitance area at 1.2200 seems to have been penetrated and provided this holds, we should expect further falls today, with a medium term target of 1.1800 region. My only slight concern is the pullback that occured on the candle yesterday evening, following the news from the US on FED funds rates and the FOMC policy statement. My strategy today would therefore be for small short positions, with a protective stop loss at 1.2750 or above.

The fundamental news out today is primarily that affecting the US dollar, and details of these can be found on the euro to dollar site. In Canada we have the release of RMPI ( Raw Materials Price Index) which measures the change in prices paid by manufacturers for raw materials. The forecast is -10.1% against a previous of -13.4 last time. This is generally considered a leading indicator of consumer inflation, and if the actual exceeds the forecast, then this is generally good for the home currency, in this case the Canadian dollar. The other data being released is it’s sister report, the IPPI, the Industrial Product Price Index, which reflects the changes in prices of goods sold by manufacturers. Last time the figures were -2.6% with a forecast of -2.1% today.

The short term is bearish, the medium term is sideways, and the long term outlookis bearish.

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USD to CAD – January 28th 2009

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Wednesday, January 28th, 2009

Yesterday’s candle for the usd to cad pair, failed to follow through on the previous two days of wide spread down bars, leaving us with a long legged doji, indicating indecision in the market. It is interesting to note that the upper leg bounced off the 14 day moving average which therefore remained intact, indicating that the move is far from over just yet. The main news affecting the usd cad currency pair yesterday, were the record low US confidence figures, followed by BOC Governor Mark Carney’s comments on the Canadian economy, and at the speech in Halifax yesterday, he made a strong statement suggesting that Canada would not suffer a decline in consumer prices, indicating that deflation was a remote possibility, and highlighting the cuts in interest rates as a powerful force in turning the economy around. This is in line with his previous comments where he believes that 2009 will be an extremely tough year for Candians with many losing their jobs, but that 2010 will be the year of recovery with strong growth in the economy.

His statement went on to say : “I want to emphasize that this projected brief period of falling prices does not signal the onset of deflation. One reason for this is that the headline inflation rate, which fell to 1.2% for December, has been dragged down by energy prices”  He also said most other prices were not falling, with more than half the goods in the consumer price index basket currently rising at more than the 2% target, the mid-point of the central bank’s 1% to 3% target range. Mr. Carney’s comments follow the central bank’s monetary policy report update on Thursday that forecast total inflation to drop below zero in the second and third quarters this year. He ended his statement by confirming that the focus of attention was on the financial crisis and ensuring that normal credit facilities and interbank lending would be re-established quickly.

The only other piece of news likely to affect the usd to cad currency pair later today is the relase of FOMC minutes and the FED Funds rate decision this evening ( UK time). More about this on the euro to dollar site. My suggested strategy for trading today is much the same as yesterday – attempt small short positions at 1.2210 with a stop loss above 1,3000 ( not at it please!!!)

The short term is bearish, the medium term is sideways, and the long term is bearish.

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