Archive for Canadian dollar – Page 2

Forex Trading Analysis – USD to CAD 25th August 2009

Monday, August 24th, 2009

Forex Analysis usd to cad 24 Aug 2009

Forex Analysis usd to cad 24 Aug 2009

Forex Technical Analysis

The usd to cad continued to move lower in the forex trading session today, but given the lack of fundamental news and thin trading volumes, lacked any conviction in the move, and indeed the market would seem to be ‘tired’, and lacking momentum. Given that we  have now seen five consecutive down days, and coupled with the fact that the move lower ran out of steam at this level last time, it would be no great surprise to see a bounce higher in the next few days from this trading level as the market exerts a short squeeze. This technical view is reinforced by the fact that today’s price action has found some support at the 1.078 price level, where the usd to cad pair bounced back in early June. Any crossing of he moving averages in such a bounce would suggest a longer term rally rather than a short term pullback.

Fundamental Forex Analysis

The only fundamental news item tomorrow on the economic calendar for Canada  is a speech by Bank of Canada deputy Governor Timothy Lane, who is due to deliver a speech entitled “The Canadian Economy Beyond the Recession” at the Canadian Association for Business Economics, in Kingston. As always his words will be analysed for any clues as to the future policy for interest rates and monetary policy in the next few months from the BOC. The other main news item for the pair is the CB Consumer confidence index, released earlier in the US, and I have covered these and other fundamental news items in more detail on the euro to dollar site.

You can keep up to date with all the latest fundamental news on the economic calendar, latest currency  news and live currency charts by simply following the links.  I have also included details on an excellent ECN broker.

Forex Chart Analysis - USD to CAD Currency Pair

Forex Chart Analysis - USD to CAD Currency Pair

Forex Technical Analysis

Friday’s wide spread down bar finished off the week for the usd to cad in bearish tone, making this the fourth straight day of losses for the pair. With the US dollar looking weak on the USD index, this momentum seems set to continue this week, with the only technical issue being whether the 1.065 level will be sufficient to halt the progress lower, which at this stage looks increasingly unlikely.  Friday’s bar also broke and closed below the 14 day moving average adding further weight to out forex analysis for the usd cad pair, and with all three moving averages now adding their own downwards pressure, my trading suggestion for tomorrow is to once again look for small short positions on an intra day basis, and with an initial target in the 1.07 price region. Should we see any resurgence in the US dollar, then there is plenty of strong resistance above to provide a degree of protection from any upward short squeeze.

Fundamental Forex Analysis

Canada provides the only important piece of fundamental news on the economic calendar today with the release of both Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales figures, with the first forecast to be flat at 0.0% and the second at 0.2%. Both these numbers are expected to be worse than last time at 1.2% and 0.7% respectively, and with no news in the US, these figures could provide a degree of movement in the currency pair once the New York forex trading session gets under way.

You can keep up to date with all the latest fundamental news on the economic calendar, latest currency  news and live currency charts by simply following the links.  I have also included details on an excellent ECN broker.