Can Dollar to US Dollar 4 Dec 2009

The usd to cad continued to bounce around on the 1.05 price region, with counterbalancing signals between last Friday and that of a week earlier, with the first suggesting a fall based on the shooting star candle ( which arrived but failed to develop) followed by this weeks candle which closed on Friday with a narrow body but a deep lower shadow, suggesting that the bulls are temporarily back in charge of the usd to cad market!  With the currency pair now apparently finding some traction at the 1.04 price level, we may well see a continuation of this upwards momentum in the early part of the week for the usd to cad pair, but for this to be sustained, it will have to be coupled with a break and hold above the 1.11 price handle which is some way above the current price action at present, and in the short term the first target on the horizon is the minor resistance in the 1.08 price region, and until we see a sustained push above these level, then a further period of sideways consolidation seems likely in the short term.

The only item of fundamental news due for release today for Canada is the Building Permits data which is expected to come in 1.1% as opposed to the 1.6% previous figure.  Building Permits measures the change  in the total value of new building permits issued and is considered an important indicator of future construction activity.  Meanwhile in the US we have a speech from Bernanke as well as the consumer credit data – details of which can be found on the eurodollar site.

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Support & Resistance for USD to CAD :

S1:  1.0479     R1:  1.0637

S2:  1.0379     R2:  1.0695

S3:  1.0321     R3:  1.0795

Can Dollar to US Dollar 2 Dec 2009

With last week’s hammer candle now duly confirmed on the daily chart, the usd to cad pair continued to trade lower yesterday once again, ending the trading session as a wide spread down candle with small wicks to both top and bottom.  The key analysis from yesterday’s price action was the resistance now apparent from the 9 and 14 day moving averages, which both presented a solid object to any move higher, and with all three moving averages now adding further pressure, the usd to cad is likely to break below the minor floor of support in the 1.04 price level in the short term, and then to retest the major potential support level at the 1.02 price point in due course.  A break below here will lead the usd to cad down to parity which I also expect to see breached in due course, with the short term outlook remaining firmly bearish once again following yesterday’s price action on the daily usd to cad chart.

With no items of fundamental news for Canada today the markets will be looking to the ADP employment figures and crude oil inventories.  The predictive accuracy of the ADP should not be underestimated, especially with the non farm payroll numbers due out on Friday.  The ADP forecast this week is -143, an improvement on the previous.  Meanwhile crude oil inventories are seen as decreasing by 0.4m barrels.

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Support & Resistance for USD to CAD :

S1:  1.0387   R1:  1.0559

S2:  1.0311    R2:  1.0655

S3:  1.0215    R3:  1.0731

Can Dollar to US Dollar 27 Nov 2009

As with many other markets, and indeed several other currency pairs, the usd to cad suffered some extreme volatility on Thursday and Friday as the markets traded through the Thanksgiving holiday, with the thin volumes reacting to the merest hints of rumour and speculatio  This resulted in  Thursday’s flight to the safe haven status of the US dollar, generally being reversed on Friday as traders shambled back to work ( or in most cases went shopping) ahead of the weekend. Friday’s candle is perhaps more significant, suggesting further bearish sentiment in the usd to cad pair as a result, with the deep shadow to the upper body an ominous omen, and indicating that we will almost certainly see a fall in the usd to cad in the early part of the week, with the shooting star candle negating any positive sentiment from the previous day, and a break below 1.04 will open up the way once again for a move lower to retest the 1.02 support region, and should this fail to hold, then parity is on the horizon once again.

Today’s significant fundamental news for Canada has been the release of the GDP figures which came in on target at 0.4%, the RMPI which came in below expectation at 2.5% and the IPPI which also came in below forecast at -0.3%.  Meanwhile in the US the Chicago PMI came in above expectation at  56.1 against a forecast of 53.4.

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Support & Resistance for USD to CAD :

S1:  1.0552    R1:  1.0715

S2:  1.0487    R2:  1.0813

S3:  1.0389    R3:  1.0878