Forex Analysis USD/CAD 1 Sep 2009

Forex Technical Analysis

Yesterday’s candle on the usd to cad daily chart, suggested that the recent attempt to rebase and squeeze higher may have come to an abrupt halt, as the forex trading session closed with a bearish shooting pattern. The upper wick of the candle was particularly deep, and in addition the high of the day failed to breach the 1.11 level once again, where this rally stalled earlier, adding to the view that we may see a move lower in the short term once again for the usd to cad pair. However, it should be noted that yesterday’s close did find a modicum of support from the 9 and 14 day moving averages, so any short position trading today should bear this factor in mind. A break below both the moving averages will add further weight to the bearish picture now coming back into play once again with an initial target of 1.07 in mind once again.

Fundamental Forex Analysis

As we start a new forex trading month for the usd to cad, there is no fundamental news on the economic calendar for Canada today, with all the news coming from the US, which I have covered for you in more detail on the euro vs dollar site.You can keep up to date with all the latest fundamental news on the economic calendar, latest currency  news and live currency charts by simply following the links.  I have also included details on an excellent ECN broker.

Daily Forex Analysis - USD to CAD Forex Chart

Forex Technical Analysis

Forex analysis of the USD to CAD daily chart is giving us some mixed forex trading signals at the moment, with Friday’s candle suggesting a bullish tone, whilst in contrast Thursday’s bar indicated a bearish sentiment in the market. If we start with Thursday, the wide spread down bar suggested a bearish engulfing pattern to forex trading for Friday, which failed to materialise with the session ending higher, and with the deep lower wick of the trading session indicating that the US dollar bulls controlled the session. The depth of this shadow suggests that we should see the USD to CAD rise  early in the trading week with the low of the session finding support just above the 1.08 level, a price point which has provided a bounce to the pair in the past, most notably in mid May. For any sustained move higher we will need to see a break and hold above the 1.11 price handle and should this be breached, we could see a move higher once again as US dollar strength returns to the forex market in the new quarter.

Fundamental Forex Analysis

With some countries closed for a national holiday on Monday, and therefore even thinner trading volumes, the focus for the fundamental news on the economic calendar will be the monthly GDP figures which are forecast at 0.2% against a previous of -0.5%. Canada is unique in that it is the only country to release monthly GDP data, all the others release theirs quarterly, and therefore the impact can be less muted at times as the changes from one month to another are less pronounced and therefore cause less of a surprise to the forex markets in general. The only other item of news in a quiet day’s trading is the Chicago PMI data in the US which is forecast at 47.4 against a previous of 43.4, which if achieved will add further evidence to the view that we are now moving out for the recessionary trough and into a long and sustained period of recovery.

You can keep up to date with all the latest fundamental news on the economic calendar, latest currency  news and live currency charts by simply following the links.  I have also included details on an excellent ECN broker.