USD to CAD - Daily Candle Chart 8th April 2009

USD to CAD - Daily Candle Chart 8th April 2009

Yesterday’s down bar confirmed two things for us from a technical perspective as follows. Firstly the bar confirmed that the bullish signal seen on Monday can now be ignored as a failed indication of a bearish reversal, and secondly with the close now below both the 9 and 14 day moving averages we can assume that the bearish sentiment is now firmly back in place in the usd to cad pair.  Indeed in this morning’s trading session we have seen a failed effort to move higher, with a prompt reversal back below the 2 moving averages once again.  Whilst trading this pair remains extremely difficult at the moment, not least due to the imminent holiday period, lack of trading volume in the market, and prices currently trading in a heavy consolidation region, I do believe that in the short to medium term we will see a break to the downside clearing the support currently in place at 1.2207.  If and when this occurs we should see a move lower back to retest support just below 1.2000 and a further move lower through the 1.1872 region.

The main news for this pair today is centred around the Canadian dollar and the release of the housing starts due out shortly, which is generally considered a leading indicator and highlights the annualized number of new homes that started to be built in the past months.  However, we need to bear in mind that Monday’s building permits figures came in wildly above the forecast and far worse than expected so we could see a further surprise today.  In addition we also have the crude oil inventory data which although it is a US indicator nevertheless can affect the Loonie more significantly than the US dollar due to the former’s eminence in the energy complex.  Finally this evening, in the US we have the FOMC minutes from the last interest rate decision.

My suggestion for today is to wait for the release of the housing start numbers and depending on how these come in and if they are more or less on target then I would look to trade intra day with small shorts bearing in mind the shortened trading week because of various national holidays.

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