USD CAD - 11th March Daily Candle Chart

USD CAD - 11th March Daily Candle Chart

As we suspected in yesterday’s post the dollar CAD has once again failed to penetrate the 1.3000 region, making this the fourth time in the last five months that prices stalled at this level.  The daily candle finished with a widespread down bar with the close finishing below the 9 day moving average and the low of the day, just touching the 14 day moving average.  Of more significance is the fact that this has now created a bearish engulfing signal, following the up candle of Monday or looked at another way a 2 bar reversal.  If we add this to the bearish engulfing signal in the middle of last week this gives us 2 bearish signs in the last 8 days and allied to the failure to penetrate above the 1.3000 resistance this would suggest we should expect to see prices falling in the next few days.

How far and how fast is questionable as we now have strong support immediately below in the 1.2650 area and for any signficant move lower we would need to see this price level pierced by some measure.  My suggestion for today would be to wait and see and if the bearish signal is confirmed by the price action then we could look for short positions tomorrow and over the next few days.  Remember that this afternoon sees the oil inventory data being released in the US which always has a more significant effect on the Canadian Dollar owing to Canada’s status as a major oil producer so watch for some volatility later in the day.

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