USD to CAD Daily Chart - 13th March 2009

USD to CAD Daily Chart - 13th March 2009

Yesterday’s down candle provided yet another bearish signal and in the last 8 days we have now seen three bearish engulfing reversal patterns, one after the other and it does beg the question of how many more do we need.  Clearly the resistance at 1.3000 is extremely strong and with the price of yesterday closing below the 9 day moving average we now need to wait for this period of sideways movement to break out.  Whilst this should be to the downside, given the signals, this is by no means guaranteed for the simple reason that the lowest price of the last 3 days has always bounced off the 14 day moving average and until this particular line is penetrated we cannot be certain of any sustained move lower.

In addition we have some very important fundamental news from Canada due for release very shortly.  It starts with the employment numbers which indicate the change in the number of people employed in the previous month (Canada’s own version of the  nfp) and although this is still likely to show a fall in the number of people of employed the forecast is for significantly “better” than last month.  This release is immediately followed by the unemployment rate which is the percentage of the workforce that is currently unemployed and looking for work.  Last month’s rate was 7.2% and the forecast is for 7.4%.  Whilst this is generally considered a lagging indicator, as always the unemployment figures provide a snapshot of the overall health of the economy.  If the actual is better then this will be positive for the Loonie.

Immediately prior to the release of the trade figures in the US we have the same data being released for Canada with a forecast of -1.0 billion CAD  against a previous of -0.5 billion CAD.  With 65% of all Canadian exports going to the US it is not difficult to see how important these figures are in relation to the two currencies.  In addition the Loonie is also affected by the oil price which in recent days has taken on a bullish tone which lends further weight to a possible fall in this pair.

Finally a question I am often asked is my opinion of the best time for trading currency and my answer is always the same – that is, it depends on the pair in question.  For the dollar CAD the optimum trading period is at the US and Canadian open.

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