USD to CAD Daily Candle Chart 25th March 2009

USD to CAD Daily Candle Chart 25th March 2009

Following the steep falls of the last 2 weeks yesterday’s small up bar came as no great surprise as profit taking resulted in a small rally.  With all the three moving averages still pointing lower and with the 9 day now crossing the 40 giving us a dead cross which is a strong sell signal confirming that the bearish sentiment is now firmly in place.   With the closing price of yesterday now deep in the congestion area for any break lower we need to see the 1.2150 support level breached and a move through this should see the usd to cad fall significantly, perhaps to re test the 1.1825 region once again, last tested in January of this year.

The main fundamental news due out later today for the Canadian Dollar is the crude oil inventories released by the EIA which measure the change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial companies.  Whilst this is a US fundamental indicator it effects the Loonie more dramatically due to Canada’s large energy sector.  The data is expected to show an increase in crude oil reserves of around 1.4 m barrels with gasoline stocks expected to fall by 900000 barrels and distillates by 200000 barrels.  Refining capacity is expected to remain flat at 82.1%.  The core durable goods data which has just been released in the US has come in significantly better than expected but has had a muted effect so far on the usd to cad pair.  My suggestion for today is to look for small short positions timing your entry using the hourly chart.

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